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What If Trump Wins?

Hello and welcome to our Market Alert video for today, which is October 18, 2024 and we’re heading into the home stretch now for the elections. And so want to go over with you this week what our thoughts are, if Trump wins the election, and the reason why we are doing that is because the polls right now are showing that Trump is in the lead and gaining momentum. Of course, Harris could come back and win. So we’ll have some thoughts about what happens if she wins the election. So we’re going to have that for you. But before we get started, I just want to have a quick public service announcement, and that is that there are only four more shopping days left until my birthday. My birthday is on October 22 and I just want to be sure that you don’t wait till the last second, and then what you want to get me is, like sold out. You know, that would be terrible. Or even worse, you’re going to the mall the day before, and you’re going to have to fight traffic and parking spots and the crowds. No, you don’t want all that. Get your shopping done early. And again, if you need a hint as to what would really work as a gift, something little and red that would fit in my garage. That would be nice, a Ferrari that would be a good gift. If you want to get me that I could see myself in a Ferrari that would be good. So anyway, let’s talk about what would happen if Trump is elected. One of the big things that is going to happen next year 2025 is that the Trump tax laws that were passed when he was president are set to expire in next year. And so one of the concerns that many people have is that, you know, taxes are going to go way up in the second half of 25 if they aren’t renewed. And so our thought is that if Trump is elected, the likelihood of him letting his own tax cuts expire would be a remote thing, so most likely he’ll want to keep them in place. And so, you know, markets, investors, they don’t like change. They like stability. They like smooth they like to be able to predict the future and invest accordingly. And so if you take all that off the table, then that has a very calming effect. So, but at the same time, the change that Trump may represent is not as significant as the change that we saw the last time when he was elected. Back then, it was the tax law changes, it was regulation cuts, it was all kinds of stuff. And because of that, you know, the market was like shot out of a cannon. It just went way up. Well, we don’t see that happening this time. In fact, if he’s reelected, it might turn out to be kind of a ho hum for the market. Now, what about if Harris gets elected? Well, if Harris gets elected, then again, the markets don’t like surprises, and so right now, the the assumption is Trump is going to get elected. The betting markets are saying that Bloomberg had an interesting thing. They showed there’s a basket of stocks that are presumed to do well if Trump is elected, there’s a basket of stocks that are presumed to do well if Harris is elected, and the Harris stocks are way down, and the Trump stocks are way up. So even the stock market is betting that Trump is going to win, but if he doesn’t, then that will come as a surprise, and markets do not like to be surprised, and so we could very easily see the market take a correction, maybe even a 10% drop on the news of her winning. But again, American Enterprise, American business, is very, very adaptable. They will find a way. And so if that were to happen once again, we wouldn’t, we would perceive that as a buying opportunity, not a panic and run for the hills. Okay, so overall, the elections are a lot of excitement. There’s a lot of stuff that goes with it. Volatility certainly can come with it. But in this instance, we don’t see a significant amount, because again, if Harris is elected, then most likely, you know, based on what she said, she wouldn’t change much, and so it would be more of the same. So that, being the case, we already have adapted to that, or businesses have, so again, not a big deal. So regardless if it gets elected, there could be volatility, but over time, not much of a change over what we’ve been experiencing. So thanks for watching this video. I just want to make sure that you guys are aware we have, and I rarely say this, but a mandatory attended for all clients and SCWPerS podcast slash video on my birthday on October 22 is when we’re releasing it on what we perceive to be one of the. Biggest threats to your financial security that I’ve ever seen in my career, and I’ve been doing this for almost 30 years now, and it’s so sophisticated and it’s so scary, and we had it actually happen with two clients that we’ll share stories about so you can learn from that. And so I really, really want you to watch it so, you know, you guys know, I have a French background, and there’s a, there’s a term in French that says un averti en vaut deux what that means is, you know, a person that is forewarned is worth two, and so we want you to be worth two. So we want to forewarn you, so please make a point of signing up. You should have gotten an invitation if you haven’t let us know. Okay, so thanks for watching this video, and we’ll talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023 

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