• We are starting to think about our Fearless Forecast for 2025!
• So far, we pretty much nailed it for 2024.
• As we look to next year, the first thing we are considering is the tariffs.
• Donald Trump has made it very clear there’s going to be tariffs, so we think that’s a foregone conclusion at this point.
• We are also looking at inflation. Is it going to go up? Is it going to go down? What’s the Fed going to do?
• Interest rates have a great effect on the economy and how our investments do.
• And then, of course, we are looking at the jobs numbers. Are people becoming unemployed or are they staying employed?
• On top of that, we’ve got Elon and Vivek who are going to cut government spending.
• One of the biggest consumers in our economy is government spending, and reducing that could lower the growth of the economy, and that could slow things down.
• On the other hand, we are looking at confidence.
• Our view is that confidence overrides everything, no matter how bad the news is, if investors are confident, they’re going to buy and they’re going to drive the prices of stocks and bonds upwards.
• Finally, we are looking at consensus.
• That means, does everyone think that something’s going to happen?
• If you watched the video from last week, you will know that we believe that tariffs will be temporary and more of a negotiating weapon.
• For example, if Mexico said they would not cooperate on the immigration issue, then they get a 25% tariff. Hopefully, soon they say uncle and we back off.
• In Trump’s first term we had tariffs, and growth was still very good back then.
• As you may know, we think inflation is going to start rising again, heading back up to 3% towards the end of the year and into the next.
• But if you extend your viewpoint out to 6 months, we think inflation will start going down, and when that happens, interest rates should become more favorable for us.
• Because of that, we think the Fed is going to lower interest rates in a week or two.
• Jobs seem to be holding, and it looks like they are going to continue to hold.
• Since Trump’s election, there seems to be this groundswell of confidence with investors, and we saw the market go to new all-time highs.
• Of course, the proof is in the pudding, so when those policies are announced and put into action, we will have to play through whether or not they bring the result people think they will.
• Looking at the historical context for our Fearless Forecast, we average two corrections per year over the last 50 years.
• A correction is a drop in the market of more than 10% but less than 20%.
• Bear markets are when the market goes down more than 20% and that happens every three years on average.
• So what do you think the Fearless Forecast is going to be when we announce it in January?
• In the next three months, we think the Fed is going to lower interest rates, jobs will hold, inflation will go up, and the stock market will continue feeling very good.
• Overall, we think we should finish the year strong.
• As you know, we always have our Invest and Protect Strategy ready to go in the event that things turn out badly.

Hello everyone. A special Hi to all of you SCWPerS out there. I hope you are a SCWPering and your tails off and all you clients. We love you. We hope that we can get you to be a SCWPer as soon as possible, so that you can go out there and enjoy your second childhood without parental supervision. I hope this video finds you healthy, wealthy and wise. That’s our goal, of course, and we have a ton to talk about. I’m going to dive into it. We’re going to have some fun this week. We’re going to we’re going to have a 3d chess game, and we’re going to involve you, and we’re going to see what you think and how we go about creating our fearless forecast every year since we’re kind of in the throes of doing that for our January announcement of what our fearless forecast is. But before I dive into all of that, as you guys know, I have my knee replaced, and the surgeon is very strict. He basically said you’re sequestered at home for one month after the surgery. So that’ll be about another week. But he also has me walking 10 minutes every hour, nine times a day, and I did the math on it, and it’s four miles. I’m walking four miles a day. I have never walked that much before. When I started doing it, my thighs and my buttock was sore. But anyway, it’s all it’s all good, and I’m progressing. And it’s very exciting. I’m really looking forward to being able to play tennis with no pain. That’s what I understand happens when you when you fully recover. So anyway, let’s talk about the topic at hand. Okay, so we’re right now starting to think about our fearless forecast for 2025 and so I want to bring you into the 3d chess game that it that we go through to kind of come up with our fearless forecast. Because over the years, you know, people say, Well, how do you do that? You seem to be so accurate. And you know, in my view, we’ve been remarkably accurate. In fact, this year, we pretty much nailed it. And so how do you go about doing that? So I want to go through the inputs right now that are in our heads, you know, as we’re looking at next year. So the first thing is, of course, the tariffs. Donald Trump has made it very clear there’s going to be tariffs. So we think that’s a foregone conclusion at this point. So we got to take that into account. Secondly, we got to take into account inflation. What’s inflation doing? Is it going to go up? Is it going to go down? And what’s the Fed going to do about it? So of course, that’s the interest rates we got to think about, because interest rates have a great deal of effect on the economy and how our investments do. And then, of course, you got to look at the jobs numbers. How are they doing? Are people becoming unemployed or are they staying employed? Is it growing? Is it shrinking? What’s the prospect for that? And if that wasn’t enough, you got Doge, right? You got Elon and Vivek. They’re now going to cut government spending, and apparent and you know, one of the biggest consumers in our economy is government spending, and if you reduce that, then that could lower the growth of the economy, and that could slow things down. But then at the other side of it, you got to look at confidence. And our view is that confidence overrides everything, no matter how bad the news is, if investors are confident, they’re going to buy and they’re going to drive in the prices of stocks and bonds upward. So confidence is the most important elixir, if you will. And you guys know, I’m a tennis player, and boy, you know, as in athletics, in sports, especially if you feel confident, you can find a way to win. The moment you lose confidence, you’re going to lose even if you are the favorite player. So we have that. And then there’s another one which is kind of interesting, and that is consensus. That means, does everybody think that something’s going to happen? And you guys may remember Groucho Marx once said that any club that would have me as a member, I don’t want to be a member of. Well, that’s how we feel. And so, in fact, this year, we actually were leaning in the direction of multiple cuts in interest rates by the Fed, but then we saw that everybody thought that, and so what that caused us to do is okay, if everybody thinks the way we do, then we’re probably going to be wrong. So let’s reexamine our fearless forecast and figure out why is it going to be wrong. And then, based on that, we said no, interest rates are not going to come down until the second half of this year, which is exactly what happened. So let’s examine those. Tariffs, if you watched the video from last week where we talked about that, we believe that they, for the most part, should be temporary. They’re basically negotiating weapons from our view. You know, for example, if Mexico said we are just not going to cooperate when it comes to the immigration thing, and they get a 25% tariff. It’s not gonna be long before they’ll say, uncle, and they’ll say, Okay, we’re gonna do it all right. So therefore many of these tariffs are basically negotiating tools and should not be something that remains as a proactive thing. The other thing, as we mentioned in the other the video is that, you know, in Trump’s first term, he had tariffs, and growth was very good back then. The other thing then is inflation. Which way is inflation going to go? As you guys know, we think inflation is going to start rising again, head back up to 3% here towards the end of this year and into next. But if you extend your viewpoint out to six months, we think inflation is going to start coming down, and when that happens, that should be good for interest rates. And so because of that, we think the Fed is going to lower interest rates here in a week or two. So interest rates should be favorable for us. Jobs seem to be holding, and right now it looks like they are going to continue to hold. So jobs should be favorable. And then you have, of course, the confidence factor. And you know, since Trump was elected, there seems to be this groundswell of confidence with investors, and we saw the market just really go, you know, high. We’ve reached all kinds of new highs. And, you know, so there’s a bit, a great deal of confidence that, you know, Trump’s policies will be favorable. Of course, you know, the proof is in the pudding. And when those policies are announced and are put into action, you know, will that actually bring the result that people think it will? And so we have to kind of play through that. The other thing, there’s two other items that are really interesting. One is and you have to put historical context onto your fearless forecast. And that is the things that happen, right? And there’s no why do they happen? It’s always different, but they do, and that is corrections. We average two corrections per year, if we go back over the last 50 years. And of course, a correction is a drop in the market of more than 10% the less than 20 and they happen. Why? Variety of reasons. But they do, so we have to incorporate that into the mix. And then the big one, of course, is bear markets. And bear markets are when the market goes down by more than 20% and that happens on average, every three years. Why? Well, it’s always different. There’s always something, as Gilda Radner used to say. So how do we put all that into a package? Well, I’m giving you the source material so you can play 3d chess right along with us. What do you think the fearless forecast is going to be when we announce it in January? And so I’m very curious to get your feedback on what you think. Okay, so I’ve given you the inputs, but since we do talk about the short term in our videos, I’ll give you our short term view of what’s going to happen between now and, let’s say, three months from now. We think the Fed is going to lower interest rates here, as I mentioned. We also think that jobs will hold. We think that the stock market is right now feeling very good, so we don’t see a major correction happening in the short run. And in addition, we have the there’s, there’s a lot of consternation right now, and that’s good, because, as I said, consensus is our enemy. We view that the tariffs are going to be a bad thing for growth, that inflation is going to continue to go up at the Fed. So there’s a lot of when you have that kind of thing that usually is a good thing for stocks. So overall, we think that between now and the rest of this year, and probably the next two months into next year, we should be okay. We should finish the year strong, and we should be all right. However, as you guys know, we always say we don’t have a crystal ball, although I do have a crystal ball. You’ll notice it’s a tennis ball, but it doesn’t work. I’ve tried and I don’t know how to turn it on. So we always have our invest and protect strategy ready to go in the event that things turn out badly, and that’s why we have it. And I hope it gives you the peace of mind it does me knowing that if things turn south and go really badly, that we’ll take action to protect your nest egg. And of course, you know that we believe that growth is important, of course, but protecting your principle is even more important. If your money is going to is going to support your lifestyle for the next 20 or 30 years, we got to protect it, don’t we? And so I hope that gives you peace of mind. So there you go. That’s how we come up with our fearless forecast. Have fun playing around with that, and we’ll talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023