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I’m So Confused By 2025

• How should you plan for 2025?
• Our Fearless Forecast for this year is that the Dow will rise by 11% and that puts it at about 48,000 at the at the highest level.
• Our Fearless Forecast is always not what we think it’ll be at the end of the year, but the highest point for the year.
• Why do we think that?
• The Trump administration has promised us a lot of deregulations.
• Regulations are expensive to comply with.
• They cause businesses to slow down how fast they can do business, and that hurts profits.
• We think profits drive stock prices.
• Deregulation should help companies’ profits, and if that’s the case, stock prices should rise.
• The other reason is inflation.
• The inflation number came in hot last week, but nevertheless, we think that inflation will trend downward over the course of the year.
• If prices stay where they are or go down, that bodes well for consumption, and consumption drives profits, and profits drive stock prices.
• The third consideration is that the Federal Reserve should have interest rates stay the same or trend downwards if inflation does, as it seems to drive most of their decision making at this time.
• If interest rates go down, then the cost of money should go down over time which also drives profits, and profits drive stock prices.
• Finally, we must consider tariffs.
• With reciprocal tariffs, as Trump is talking about, could make the cost of selling a product in this country, if it is not made here, very high.
• That being the case, there’s talk already of companies bringing their manufacturing and their production over here to the United States to avoid those tariffs.
• If they do, that creates jobs in the US.
• If consumers have jobs, they buy stuff, profits come, and stock prices react accordingly.
• For those reasons, we think that we should have a good year.
• We do anticipate a correction this year, however.
• A correction is when the stock market goes down by more than 10% but not more than 20%.
• If it gets down more than 20% it becomes a bear market, which we don’t see for this year, but we do see a correction coming.
• We anticipate the correction to be a buying opportunity, and not a reason to panic and sell.
• As you may know, we believe that growth is important, but protection of principle is even more important.
• If you are retired and you’re drawing from your investments, you don’t need your investments to lose 30, 40, 50%.
• We think having a strategy to protect against that is super important.
• We don’t think a bear market will come this year, but these things can come out of the blue.
• We believe our Invest and Protect Strategy addresses the unknown, and we hope that it gives you peace of mind.


Hello, SCWPerS Nation and clients. I hope this video finds you healthy, wealthy and wise, and I hope you are staying warm. Boy howdy, we record this video in Plano, Texas, which is where our headquarters are, which is in North Dallas. And it is 22 degrees today, and in fact, earlier this week, it was 12 degrees. So I hope you’re staying warm and that all is well with you. In this week’s Market Alert video, you know, I want to talk with you about what we are telling prospective clients and what you might tell a friend or a family member in terms of how to plan for this year? 2025 I mean, think about it. There are so many uncertainties, so much confusion, so much stuff happening, so fast. How on earth do you plan for this year? So I want to make you the smartest person in the room. So when people ask you, what do you what do you think you can you can expound. You can expound like a genius, and you don’t even have to give us credit. Okay, don’t do that. I give you permission to take full credit. So for those of you who are SCWPerS, I hope you’re out there SCWPering your little tails off. I hope you’re enjoying your second childhood without parental supervision, and you clients, our goal is to get you there, right? We want you to have peace of mind, and we want your money to last as long as you do. That is our singular we want to do that for you, and it’s validates everything that we do. It’s our reason for coming to work every day, waking up in the morning. It’s wonderful. So thank you for letting us do that for you. So let’s talk about how to plan for 2025 as you guys know, our Fearless Forecast for this year is that the Dow will rise by 11% and that puts it at about 48,000 at the at the highest level. And again, our Fearless Forecast is always not what it’ll be at the end of the year, but it is the highest point. So we could hit 48,000 in July. Okay, so it’s the, it’s the high water mark, if you will. And so given that you know, why do we think that? Well, there are several reasons. One is that the Trump administration has promised us, they haven’t gotten around to it yet, but they said that they’re going to do a lot of deregulation. And of course, regulations are expensive to comply with. They cause businesses to slow down how fast they can do business, and that hurts profits. And therefore, as you guys know, we think profits drive stock prices. So if we have deregulation, that should help companies’ profits, and if that’s the case, stock prices should rise. So that’s one of the reasons. The other reason is inflation. So we got an inflation number last week, and it came in hot. It was higher than we thought it would be but nevertheless, we think that inflation will trend downward over the course of the year. And therefore that be the case. Consumers who buy things right, they don’t want inflation. They want things to stay where they are or go down in price. And so if we have that happening, then that bodes well for consumption, and consumption drives profits, and profits drive stock prices. So it’s kind of a virtual circle. The other thing also is that the Federal Reserve, which is, you know, I consider them to be, you know, very confused about what’s going on. You know, John Travolta back in the Welcome Back Cotter days. For those of you who are old enough for that, may recall it was like, I’m so confused. That’s our Federal Reserve right now. They have no idea they even said it. We don’t know! We’re confused so, but at the very least, if inflation, which is what drives most of their decision making at this time, if inflation stays the same or trends downward as we think, then interest rates should stay the same or trend downward as we, as we as that happens. And if that’s the case, then the cost of money should go down over time. And of course, that drives profits, and profits drive stock prices. So for those reasons, we think again that we should have a good year. The other thing is tariffs. And of course, with reciprocal tariffs, as Trump is talking about, then the cost of selling your product in this country, if you don’t make it here, will be very high. You know, he’s talking about 25% potentially on some some things. So that being the case, there’s talk already of companies bringing their manufacturing and their production over here to the United States to avoid those tariffs. If they do, guess what that does? Creates jobs in the US, and if consumers have jobs, they buy stuff. Profits come stock prices react accordingly. So for all those reasons, we’re pretty bullish about this year. Now, one of the things I want to warn you about in advance, that’s our job, is that we anticipate that we should have a correction this year, and a correction is when the stock market goes down by more than 10% but not more than 20% okay, so it’s within that range. If it gets down more than 20% it becomes a bear market, which we don’t see for this year, but we do see a correction coming, and if that happens, then we anticipate that to be a buying opportunity and not a reason to panic and sell. So we’ll see when it comes. You know, which is why you need to watch this video every week, but at this point, we would consider that, as I said, to be a buying opportunity. So therefore that’s why we’re bullish. Now, having said all of that, the important thing, as you guys know, is that we believe that growth is important, but protection of principle is even more important, right? If you are retired, if you’re a SCWPer, and you’re out there enjoying yourself, and you’re drawing from your investments, you don’t need your investments to lose 30, 40, 50% having a strategy to protect against that, we think is super important. Now, will a bear market come? We don’t think so, but it could. Things come out of the blue. Nobody anticipated the credit crisis, nobody anticipated the.com or very few people did, but they happened, and the other big bad bears were the same. And so basically, we need a strategy to address the unknown, and we believe that our strategy does, and I hope that it gives you peace of mind, as it does me. Okay, so all of those things. So now you know. Fearless Forecast, Dow, 48,000 and you now know the reasons why we think that, and you can be the star of the next cocktail party. So one of the things I would like for you to do please is to like and subscribe to this video. It’ll help our ratings on the podcast listings a lot, and you can help us in that regard greatly. And of course, make sure you listen to our podcast as well if you’re not okay. So our website is where you can find all of that. Rpoa.com so thanks for watching. I hope this video did find you healthy, wealthy and wise, and we’ll talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023 

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RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”) is an SEC registered investment adviser with a primary business location in Plano, Texas. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement by securities regulators and does not imply that Retirement Planners of America has attained a certain level of skill, training, or ability. The “Invest and Protect Strategy” (the “Strategy”) refers to a strategy that Retirement Planners of America fundamentally employs for its clients. Retirement Planners of America previously employed a similar strategy that it referred to as the “buy, hold, and sell” strategy or “buy hold, and protect” strategy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 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