• The market has been misbehaving!
• What’s driving all this?
• The April 2 tariff deadline is certainly part of it.
• President Trump said that the tariffs are all going to come into play on April 2.
• To a great degree, it seems to us that investors have been ignoring the whole tariff thing.
• All of a sudden, now it’s real.
• That could be a great deal of the uncertainty that’s causing the selling.
• Some other indicators are disconcerting about what’s going on.
• One is the yield curve.
• The yield curve is the difference between short-term and long-term interest rates.
• If the yield curve is inverted, meaning that interest rates in the future are going to be lower than they are today, then what that means is that the bond market is saying we’ve got recession coming.
• Why?
• Because the Fed is going to be lowering interest rates to make to stimulate the economy.
• Why would they do that, unless we have a recession?
• The yield curve has predicted every single recession we’ve ever had.
• That sounds impressive, except it has also predicted a whole bunch of recessions that did not happen.
• So, we take it with a grain of salt, but it is saying there’s a potential recession coming.
• The other consideration is investor sentiment, which is what investors are doing and where they’re investing their money.
• What we’re seeing is that investors are getting out of the riskier side of the market, and they’re moving more towards the more defensive side of the market.
• Why would they be doing that?
• Well, the stock market may be starting to think that bad things could be coming.
• Consumer confidence is also down to 12-year lows.
• On the other hand, though, spending is up.
• We’ve got all these things going on at the same time, and so because of that, investors are uncertain, and when they’re uncertain, what do they do?
• They take their profits, and they go home.
• We are glad we have our Invest and Protect Strategy ready to help us out.
• We have not reached our sell signal, but we’re getting very, very close.
• We keep going down, getting close to it, and bouncing back off it, but if we break through, then we will take action to protect your investments.
• Will we hit our sell signal?
• It’s hard to say.
• We might get there, we may not.
• We’ve been using our strategy for a long time, and this has happened many times where we get close and bounce back off it.
• The important thing is we hope that you’re letting us get the gray hair and let us worry about it for you so that you don’t have to.
• Your job is to go out and have fun, enjoy and not worry about all of this boring financial stuff.
• We hope having our Invest and Protect strategy gives you peace of mind.
• If the market goes way down from here and this turns into a really big, bad bear market we have a strategy to protect you from that.

Hello and welcome to our market alert video for today, which is March 28 2025 Thank you for watching and SCWPerS nation. I hope you guys are all out there, SCWPering your tails off and you’re having more fun than a human being should be allowed to have during your second childhood. And for those of you who are not SCWPerS yet, our job is to get you there. We want you to retire when you want to, and we want you to stay retired once you have, in fact, retired. So thanks for watching. I hope you are all well. You may notice that we look very professional today. We’re in our studio, and we certainly welcome any of you who want to come down and take a look. It’s pretty, pretty professional. Love it, and so we’re going to be doing them here from now on or for the most part, we have a lot to talk about, but let’s talk about what’s going on, because there’s a lot, and the market has been misbehaving, in case you haven’t noticed. And so what’s driving all this? Well, certainly the April 2 tariff deadline, right? So this is where President Trump said that the reciprocal tariffs, the automobile tariffs, all these tariffs, are all going to come into play on April 2. And to a great degree, it seems to us that investors have been ignoring the whole tariff thing. Because if you look at when he said we’re adding or subtracting, there’s been very little movement on the markets. It’s mostly been based on, you know, jobs numbers and inflation numbers and those kind of things. So what that tells us is that the market is basically just kind of been ignoring the tariff thing, but all of a sudden, now it’s real. Oh my gosh, they’re actually going to happen, you know, on April 2. So we don’t know what that means. So that could be a great deal of the uncertainty that’s causing the selling. There are some other things, though, that are kind of, I’ll say, disconcerting about what’s going on. One is the yield curve. So the yield curve is the difference between short term and long term interest rates, and if the yield curve is inverted, meaning that interest rates in the future are going to be lower than they are today. Then what that means is that the bond market is saying we’ve got recession coming. Why? Because the Fed is going to be lowering interest rates to make to stimulate the economy. And why would they do that, unless we have a recession. So the yield curve is predicting a recession right now, and the yield curve has predicted every single recession we’ve ever had. Now that sounds impressive, except for if you add on that, it is also predicted a whole bunch of recessions that did not happen. So it’s like really good at predicting the ones that did happen, but it’s also predicting ones that don’t. So you have to take it with a grain of salt, but nevertheless, it is saying there’s a potential recession coming. The other thing, of course, is we got the investor sentiment, which is, you know what investors are doing, where they’re investing their money, and what we’re seeing is, is that investors are getting out of the riskier side of the market, and they’re moving more towards the more defensive side of the market. Why would they be doing that? Well, the stock market is starting to think that, you know, bad things may be coming, and so that’s what they’re doing. Now here’s a two other interesting data points that we got this week. One is that consumer confidence is down to 12 year lows. It hasn’t been this low this in 12 years. Now, you know, what makes that kind of funny is that spending is up. So basically, I think what it means is that consumer confidence is down. Oh my gosh. I feel so depressed. So what I’m going to do is go shopping. So we got shopping up, confidence down again, not always as a good indicator of whether we’re heading into recession or not, but we’ve got all these things going on at the same time, and so because of that, investors are uncertain, and when they’re uncertain, what do they do? They take their profits and they go home. So that’s where we are. The thing that I can say is that I’m glad we have our invest and protect strategy ready to help us out now, right now, as I record this, we have not reached our sell signal, but once again, we’re getting very, very close, and so we keep going down and getting close to it and bouncing back off of it, but if we break through, then we will be selling and as I’ve mentioned in previous videos, we can’t tell you in advance How much or what, but we can tell you that we are selling. So if we hit our sell signal, we’ll tell you, and we’ll tell you we were selling. And then once those trades are passed, where people can front run us, meaning they can go out and try to trade ahead of us, and that’ll affect our price. And we don’t want that. We want to get the best pricing we can. So therefore, we’ll tell you after the fact. We won’t announce to the world yet, okay, so we ask your patience on that will we hit our sell signal hard to say, you know, we’ve been using our signal, our strategy now for a long time, and this has happened many, many, many times where we get this close and we bounce back off of it. So at this point, you. Don’t ask me. I don’t know. Okay, we might get there. We may not, but certainly the market is uncertain and we could. So this video is not intended to stress you out. I hope it’s not. It’s just to tell you where we are and what we’re thinking and what’s going on and what’s driving it. So the important thing, I hope, is, is that you’re letting us get the gray hair, and let us worry about it for you so that you don’t have to. And your job is to go out and have fun, enjoy and not worry about all of this boring financial stuff. And I can tell you that having our sales strategy, our investment protect strategy, gives me peace of mind, because I know in my heart that if the market goes way down from here, this turns into a really big, bad bear market, which it could? We have a strategy to protect you from that, and that’s why I do this. It’s to help you to have a successful retirement and for your money to last as long as you do. So it gives me that peace of mind that we can hopefully accomplish that for you. So that’s where we are. Thank you for watching and share this video with your friends and family, and also make sure you like and subscribe. That helps our all of the stuff that goes on in the internet that I know nothing about, but if you like and subscribe, it makes it really good. So thank you, if you would, and we’ll talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023