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As We Predicted Inflation Went Up, But So Did The Market

• As we’ve been saying, inflation is heading back up again.
• The inflation numbers came in yesterday and they went up, but the market went up too.
• Why?
• Because the inflation rate didn’t go up high enough to stop the Fed from lowering interest rates next week.
• Our view is that inflation will continue to rise, probably for the next month or two before it starts to go back down again and will trend in the direction that the Fed wants.
• We still view that through the end of this year, the enthusiasm over the elections and President Trump, lowering taxes, lowering regulations, being pro-business are going to continue to inspire the stock market to go up.
• But there are some clouds on the horizon, which we’ll talk about when we have our Fearless Forecasts in the first week of January.
• We don’t think it’s anything to be overly concerned about, but certainly a reason why we’re so glad that we do have our Invest and Protect Strategy to help us to mitigate the downside.
• It would not surprise us if we didn’t see a correction, meaning a drop in the market of 10 to 20% in the first quarter of next year.
• It’s run so far, so fast, so high that it wouldn’t be beyond the realm of possibilities.
• We have a lot of uncertainty with what’s going on in Syria, in Israel, in Ukraine. And of course, the potential is that tariffs could slow growth.
• One could make the argument that we could have a recession next year, and that would bring about a bear market.
• Overall, we view things as being still good, but at the same time, we must always have a strategy to protect ourselves, which is why we are so happy we have our Invest and Protect Strategy.
• We hope that gives you peace of mind.

Hello everyone, and welcome to our Market Alert video for today, which is Friday, the 13th, Eek, 2024 and you may notice that I’m back in bed again. The reason is, is because I’m a total idiot. I overdid it, and so my knee started hurting a lot. I had knee replacement surgery about a month ago. Everything was going swimmingly, but I overdid it the last three days, and so went to the doctor, and he said that he needed to suck a bunch of stuff out of my knee because it was swollen. So I’m going to warn you. I want to show you a picture, but look away if you don’t want to see but this is how much blood he took out of my knee. I don’t know if you can see that. Well, not a good thing. So basically, I’m back in bed for another four weeks, not allowed to have to keep my leg elevated. So learn from me if you have knee replacement surgery. I didn’t realize I was overdoing it, but I did. So welcome to the video. I am your faithful CEO of Retirement Planners of America and founder. And so the show must go on, as I always say, and so we’ll do it from bed. That’s the way it goes. So as we’ve been saying, inflation is going to head back up again. And sure enough, it did. The inflation numbers came in yesterday and they were high that it went up, but the market went up too. Why? Because the inflation rate didn’t go up high enough to stop the Fed from lowering interest rates here next week. So that, being the case, the market seemed to be okay with that. Our view of it is, yes, inflation will continue to rise, probably for the next month or two before it starts to go back down again and will trend in the direction that the Fed wants. And probably that’s what the market is seeing, is what we’re seeing. But as we always say, if you don’t watch these videos, you do it at your own peril, because we said at the beginning of this year that there will be no rate cuts till the second half. Against the vast opinion of Wall Street, which was no inflation, is going to be down to 2% by June, and there would be seven to 12 rate cuts that we couldn’t see that happening. So again, make sure you don’t miss any of our Market Alert videos, if you want to know what’s going on. In fact, I was joking, saying maybe I should have a seat on the Federal Reserve to help them out. I’m joking. So basically, we still view that through the end of this year, the enthusiasm over the elections and President Trump, lowering taxes, lowering regulations, being pro business are going to continue to inspire the stock market to go up, but there are some clouds on the horizon, which we’ll talk about when we have our Fearless Forecasts in the first week of January, nothing to be overly concerned about, but certainly a reason why we’re so glad that we do have our Invest and Protect Strategy to help us to mitigate the downside. Should the market go way down, it would not surprise us if we didn’t see a correction, meaning a drop in the market of 10 to 20% in the first quarter of next year, it’s run so far, so fast, so high that it wouldn’t be beyond the realm of possibilities. Let’s say so. Overall, we view things as being still good, but at the same time, we must always have a strategy to protect ourselves. If something bad were to come along, and it certainly could. We have a lot of uncertainty with what’s going on in Syria, in Israel, in Ukraine. And of course, the potential is that tariffs could slow growth. And you know, there’s all kinds of uncertainty out there, and certainly there are. You could make the argument that we could have a recession next year, and that would bring about a bear market. So we’re going to kind of put that all together. If you didn’t play our 3d chess game last week, make sure you go to our website, rpoa.com and find the our video from last week, because we went into the inputs that we use to determine our Fearless Forecast, and there’s nine of them. So it is 3d chess, and it’s fun to do. So thank you for watching this video. I’m an idiot, I admit it. And this was the doctor said, a serious event. It was not it was not nothing, as he put it also. So he’s kind of mad at me. I’m relegated. So the next three or four videos that you see will be in this setting. So I apologize in advance, but I do want to get these Market Alert videos out to you, so I hope all is well with you. For clients who have become SCWPerS, and for those of you who don’t know what SCWPerS means, that’s the acronym for second childhood without parental supervision. So for all you SCWPerS out there, I hope you are SCWPering your tails off, and I hope you are enjoying your retirement, and for everyone else, our job is to make you a SCWPer. That’s what we want to do. So thanks for watching this video, and we’ll talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023 

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RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”) is an SEC registered investment adviser with a primary business location in Plano, Texas. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement by securities regulators and does not imply that Retirement Planners of America has attained a certain level of skill, training, or ability. The “Invest and Protect Strategy” (the “Strategy”) refers to a strategy that Retirement Planners of America fundamentally employs for its clients. Retirement Planners of America previously employed a similar strategy that it referred to as the “buy, hold, and sell” strategy or “buy hold, and protect” strategy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, current or prospective clients should not assume that the future performance of the Strategy, any specific investment, or any other investment strategy that Retirement Planners of America recommends will be profitable or equal to past performance levels. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. References to recommendations made under the Strategy that predate 2011; and statements such as and similar to: “we told our clients to be out of the market in 2007 and 2008,” “we told our clients to get back into the market in 2009,” and “clients that followed our advice were out of the market in 2008;” refer to strategies collectively employed and recommendations collectively made by Retirement Planners of America’s principals while employed at Eagle Strategies, LLC., and also at Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc. Three of the five principals remain as principals today, including the Retirement Planners of America’s founder, Ken Moraif. 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