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• Since the beginning of this year, we’ve been saying that inflation was going to bottom in June and then start to go back up again.
• We think into the end of the year and into the first quarter, inflation will go back up to 3%.
• We also said we wouldn’t see rate cuts until the second half of the year, and not anywhere near seven or twelve times like some big banks and many top financial institutions were saying.
• So far, our fearless forecast has been right on.
• Does this mean that we should panic and get worried because we think inflation is going to get back over 3% by the year end?
• The answer is no, and the reason why is because we need to extend out our view.
• If we look out six months from now, we think inflation is going to go up and then come back down.
• Right now, there’s a lot of talk about whether or not Trump wanting to impose tariffs is going to be inflationary or recessionary.
• In the first Trump administration, we had some of the lowest inflation we’d had in 50 years and the best economy in 50 years.
• But during that time, he was putting tariffs on many countries like China.
• Back then, people were also worried that the prices of products were going to go up at places like Walmart because so many places buy everything from China.
• Well, that’s not what happened.
• The other thing is that, proposed currently, the tariffs are like mirrors.
• We’ll see what the final product is, but as a mirror, that means if they put a tariff on us of 30%, we’ll put a tariff on them of 30%. If they drop it to 10%, we’ll also drop ours to 10%.
• If the tariffs are like a mirror, other countries retaliating by raising tariffs would be self-defeating because we will raise ours in kind.
• The other thing is they could do nothing, or they could lower theirs, so we lower ours, which would be good for growth.
• Having said that, on average, we have bear markets approximately every three years.
• We haven’t had one in about three years, so we are due for one.
• So, even though we don’t see it, it is possible that we could have one next year.
• Of course, that’s why we have our Invest and Protect Strategy in place to get you out of the market, should we see bad things coming.
• We hope knowing that gives you a lot of peace of mind.

Hello, SCWPerS Nation and clients, welcome to our Market Alert video for today, which is November 22, 2024. I hope this video is reaching you healthy, wealthy and wise, and I hope everything is coming up roses for you and that all is well. Want to talk with you about inflation today. I also want to talk about tariffs, since that seems to be the big thing that people are concerned about right now, is Trump is going to create tariffs, and that’s going to be terrible. So I want to talk about that. But before we do, want to give you an update. I am sequestered at home. I’m not allowed to leave the house until December 11, one month after my knee replacement surgery. My surgeon’s a real stickler, and so I’m producing this video from home. And you may be saying, well, Ken, if you’re doing it from home, what’s up with the tie and the shirt? Well, you know, for me, this is my uniform. This is what I wear when I go to work. You know, it’s like the military, they have a they have a uniform. Football players have a uniform. When you go to work, you wear your uniform. It puts you in the right mindset. And I think it’s, it’s the way that you should operate your life. When you’re working, you’re working, and when you’re playing, you’re playing, etc. And so that’s, that’s why. And by the way. You may notice behind me there my reading material. Since I am sequestered and I am on pain meds, you know, my brain is kind of mushed up a little bit. And so my reading material has gone to my my favorite things, Spider Man being the number one, my most favorite. And then the Fantastic Four. And then the Silver Surfer, if you’ve never read the Silver Surfer stories, it’s really good stuff. It’s a great story. But anyway, let’s talk about inflation. As we’ve been saying since the beginning of this year, that inflation was going to come down around June. We said it would bottom in June and then start to go back up again. And we said that we would see inflation, you know, into the end of the year, go back up to 3% and that’s what we still see. And we think it’s what’s going to happen, you know, at the beginning of this year and into the first quarter, many of the top analysts and many of the top financial institutions and all these people, you know, these economists that make millions of dollars doing this stuff were saying inflation was going to be down to 2% by May, that we would have seven rate cuts. Oh my gosh. Or what one big bank said, 12 rate cuts this year! Can you imagine? Well, we said, no, no, no, no, do all of that. We said second half of this year is when the first rate cuts would come, and not, by any means anywhere near seven or 12. And in fact, it looks like that’s going to be the case. So so far, our fearless forecast is right on. The thing, though, does this mean that we should panic and get worried because inflation, we think is going to get back over 3% by the year end? The answer is no, and the reason why is because we need to extend out our view. And if we look out six months from now, we think inflation is going to go up and then come back down. If you didn’t watch last week’s video, please do you’ll see where I show you why. But basically we see inflation going up and then coming back down and maybe even heading towards the target of 2% by June of next year. So that being the case, not a reason to panic, not a reason to make any big moves at this time, because of, you know, inflation heating back up again. So that’s all I have to say about that. As Bubba Gump once said, Not much to say about inflation. So I want to get into the tariff thing. I find it quite interesting, you know, that right now there’s a lot of talk about how Trump, you know, wanting to impose tariffs, is going to be inflationary. It’s going to be recessionary, and it’s going to, you know, cause potentially a big, bad bear market, and a lot of hand wringing going on, oh my gosh, the sky is going to fall on us. So wanted to give you our opinion on that. Let’s go back to the first Trump administration, and you’ll recall that back then, we had some of the lowest inflation we’d had in 50 years. We had the best economy in 50 years. And so you put those two together, and what was he doing during that time? He was putting tariffs on everyone. I mean, he was like, all in on the tariffs on China, the tariffs on this. And people back then were saying, Oh, no, you know, all the products and services are going to be all the products at Walmart are going to go up and you know that’s going to affect the consumer, because everybody buys everything from China. Well, that is not what happened. Okay, so first piece of evidence that these tariffs are not necessarily inflationary or recessionary is Trump’s first administration where he did it, and we didn’t have a recession and we didn’t have high inflation. So that flies in the face of that argument. The other thing also that for us, it makes tariffs not necessarily a. Bad thing is that as it is proposed currently, we’ll see what the final product is. But as it is proposed currently, the tariffs are basically mirrors, right? So if you put a tariff on us of 30% we’re going to put a tariff on you of 30%. If you drop it down to 10, we’ll drop ours down to 10, you raise it to 40, we’ll raise ours to 40. So it’s a mirror. So if Trump puts tariffs on people that are mirrors, what’s going to happen? Well, one thing is they could say, oh, yeah, we’re going to raise tariffs on you. Well, that would be self defeating, because if they raise it on us, we’re going to raise it on them. So I don’t think anybody would do that. I mean, they might, but it would be kind of self defeating. So the other thing is, they could do nothing, or they could say, You know what, let’s lower ours, and then America will lower theirs, which would be good for growth. So in our view, this, the structure of the how the tariffs are set up is very important. And if it’s set up as a mirroring thing, which is what Trump has said, then the likelihood is that it’s not going to cause others to raise their tariffs. So because of those two things, we don’t think that the tariff question is one to be overly hand wringing and being worried and oh my gosh, we’re going to have a big, bad bear market and a terrible recession because of these tariffs and inflation is going to go through the roof. We don’t think that’s going to happen. There’s no evidence to show that it will based on recent history. So there you have it. You now have your talking points when you’re at your next cocktail party. Now, having said that, you know, we have bear markets approximately every three years. We’ve had 33 of them in the last 100 years. And so we haven’t had one in almost in about three years. So we are due for a bear market. And statistically, you could say there’s an argument for that. So it is very possible we could have a bear market next year. We don’t see it, but it could happen. And of course, that’s why we have our Invest and Protect Strategy in place to get you out of the market, should we see bad things coming. And I don’t know about you, but it gives me a lot of peace of mind knowing that, and I hope it does you as well. So that’s our video for this week. I hope you got some value out of it. I hope, as I said, it finds you healthy, wealthy and wise and all you SCWPerS, I hope you are SCWPering your little tails off. And for those of you don’t know, SCWPerS is the acronym for second childhood without parental supervision. That’s what we want for you. We want you to go play, have fun, enjoy your retirement. Be a kid again. Let us worry about all this boring financial stuff so that you don’t have to. And we have a strategy that hopefully gives you the peace of mind to be able to do that. So share this video with all of your friends and family. The more people watch this, the better. And not only that, but make sure you subscribe to this video so you never miss a single one of this delicious content. You don’t want to miss it. So thanks for watching, and we’ll talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023