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• This week, the Federal Reserve told us what they’re going to do with interest rates, what they think about recession, and the effects of tariffs.
• The Fed said no interest rate lowering at this time. However, they continue to say they’re going to be two more.
• Therefore, our Fearless Forecast, where we said that they would lower interest rates in June, is seeming to become more and more of a possibility.
• That should be well received by the market, if we don’t have a recession.
• The Fed then used a word they should never, ever use again: transitory.
• Remember when they said inflation would be transitory?
• Well, four years later and it is still with us.
• But, they’re saying that they think the effects of tariffs are going to be transitory and should not cause a recession.
• They don’t think it’ll cause inflation to rise dramatically, so they’re still on track to lower interest rates two more times.
• Our Fearless Forecast for this year is that we should have a good year when all is said and done.
• But keep in mind that our Fearless Forecast is just that – a forecast.
• If our strategy says it’s time to sell, then regardless of our forecast, we will sell.
• On the other hand, right now represents what we believe to be a terrific window of opportunity to invest.
• The way our strategy works, as you know, is we reach a certain point where, if we get below it, we’re going to sell.
• Right now we are around 2-3% away from our trigger.
• So why is it a fantastic time investment time in our view?
• Because if you go in now and it goes down then, in theory, our strategy would get us out with 2 or 3% loss.
• But, historically, when we’re this close to our sell signal, if we don’t hit it, the market then goes back up, and we start seeing the market do very, very well, and actually reach new all-time highs all over again.
• With our strategy, you have something that most people don’t, and that is a place certain where we are going to execute our sell and therefore the downside should be very mitigated with the opportunity on the upside.
• Since we are so close to our sell signal, we want to go over Investment Principle #7: Paying taxes on gains is preferable to losing principal.
• We’ve had a fantastic run since we went back in March of ‘22.
• If we sell, we’re going to have taxes on those gains.
• Bernard Baruch, who was the Warren Buffet of the Great Depression, once said that you can never go broke making a profit.
• If you’re paying taxes on the gains, it means you made a profit, and that’s actually a good thing.
• Now, we don’t like taxes. Taxes are something we’d rather avoid if we can, but it is preferable to losing principal.
• If we just buy and hold, we could see not only our investments go down where we’ve given back all of our gains, but if it’s bad enough, we could even give back principal on top of that.
• Given a choice, we think paying taxes on gains is less bad than losing principal and all the gains that we had.
• Because we’ve had such a good run, if we do sell, your investments with us that are not in IRAs will be subject to capital gains depending on how long you’ve held those investments.

Hello and welcome to our Market Alert video for today, which is March 21, 2025 Thank you for watching. I hope this video finds you healthy, wealthy and wise, and for all you SCWPerS out there, I hope you are SCWPering your little tails off. And don’t worry about it. We’ll clean up after you. We’ll pick up all the tails. So SCWPerS Nation keep it going, and for those of you clients that are not retired yet, our goal is to get you to where you can enjoy your retirement, your second childhood without parental supervision. That’s what we’re all about. So again, thank you for watching. Three things want to talk with you about in this video. The first is, of course, the big meeting, the Federal Reserve told us what they’re going to do with interest rates, what they think about recession, the probabilities. And then also they talked about, you know, what are the effects of tariffs, and how are those going to effect everything? And then I want to integrate all of that into our strategy. And where we sit as I record this, we have not reached our sell signal yet, although we are still very close and on high alert. So I’m going to take a deep breath after that long sentence. The other thing I want to talk about is that right now represents what we believe to be a terrific window of opportunity to invest and I want to go over with you why that is and it’s it’s a function of how our strategy works, and something that you may not have thought about, but you should. So I’ll go over that with you. And then, since again, we are so close to our sell signal, I want to make sure that we are on the same page in terms of our expectations. And so I want to go over with you investment principle number seven, which is a very important one when it comes to how our strategy works and all of that, so that you can be educated and knowledgeable. All right, so we have a chock full agenda. Can’t wait to dive in. So first of all, let’s go over what the Fed said no interest rate lowering at this time. However, they continue to say they’re going to be two more. Oh, by the way, you may notice I’m wearing my tie and my shirt. I’m sitting at a desk. I’m not in bed. Yes, it’s true. I forgot. I’ve been I’m free, free at last, free at last. Glory, hallelujah. I’m out of bed. Okay, so as you guys know, I’ve been in bed for the last month or two with my knee replacement keeping it elevated. I’ve been released from all of that, although I am not free to play tennis yet, probably another month at least, maybe longer, and so, so far so good. So back to the Fed, yeah. So, so they basically said they don’t see the high probability of a recession, they think that they’re going to lower interest rates two more times this year. And so our Fearless Forecast, which we amended, where we said that they would lower interest rates in June, is seeming to become more and more of a possibility. And so that should be well received by the market, if we don’t have a recession, that should be well received as well. But the Federal Reserve used a word that they should never, ever use again. They used the word transitory. Can you believe it? I mean, remember back when they said inflation was going to be transitory? And everybody was like, oh, transitory. Well, yeah, four years later, it’s still with us. So how, how long is transitory? You know, is it like the rest of our lives, or is it like a week when does transitory end? But certainly with the the history of their word, of their usage of that word, it, I would suggest to them, don’t use that word anymore, but they’re saying that they think the effects of tariffs are going to be transitory and should not cause a recession, and they don’t think it’ll cause inflation to rise dramatically, so therefore they’re still on track to lower interest rates two more times. So that bodes well. Now our Fearless Forecast for this year is that we should have a good year when all is said and done. But keep in mind that our Fearless Forecast is all basically. It’s this. It’s us looking into a crystal ball. And, you know, I haven’t figured out. You’ll notice this in the shape of a tennis ball. We have not figured out how to turn this thing on yet. Okay, so it’s, it’s, it’s cool, but I don’t know how it works. And so our Fearless Forecast is just that it’s a forecast. If our strategy says it’s time to sell, then regardless of our forecast, we will sell. Okay, now we will not be able to tell you how much we’ve we’ve sold, or what we’ve sold until after we’ve done it. Okay, so we’ll tell you we’ve sold, but we won’t tell you how much or what, and the reason why is because if we do that, then others will know what we’re doing. They could front run our trades, and we won’t get optimum pricing. So we want to be sure that we kind of keep it under wraps. So we’ll tell you we’ve done it, but we won’t tell you what we did, okay, just to protect our pricing. Now. Now the window of opportunity. What is that? So there’s no guarantee on this. Okay, it could, it could not turn out the way I’m saying. It could be worse. But the way our strategy works, as you know, is we reach a certain point where, if we get below it, we’re going to sell. And right now we’re around 2 to 3% away from that. So it is, in our view, a fantastic investment time. Why? Because if you go in now and it goes down then, in theory, our strategy would get us out with 2 or 3% loss. That’s our downside right? Now, it could be more. I’m not guaranteeing anything, but if it holds the way it should, the downside could be maybe 2% 3% but historically, if you’re if we’re this close to our sell signal, and we don’t hit it, the market then goes back up, and we start seeing the market do very, very well, and actually reaches new all time highs all over again. So when you’re this close to our sell signal, you have something that most people don’t, and that is a place certain where we are going to execute our sell and therefore the downside should be very mitigated with with the opportunity on the upside. And just so you know that I put my money where my mouth is, I just scraped together every, every piece of cash I could find in everywhere. And I invested myself. I went all in with all the cash I have to invest. And I did that because of what I just said. The downside risk to me, I feel is very low, given how close we are to getting out anyway, but if it doesn’t hit and we go back up, that’s that’s a pretty good opportunity, and I’m willing to take that as an investment. So something for you to talk to your retirement planner about, if you have cash that you want to get invested and you’ve been waiting for an opportune time, this may be it. Okay. So that’s something all right. The next thing I want to do is I want to share my screen with you, because, again, we’re so close to our sell signal, that it is important that we are all on the same page should we get to our sell signal. Alright? And so I want to go here to our Investment Principles, and in specific, I want to look at this one down here, number seven, paying taxes on gains is preferable to losing principal. Okay, so we’ve had a fantastic run since we went back in back in March of 22 I believe it was so we’ve had, you know, the market has been very kind to us, and we’ve had a terrific run. And so if we sell, we’re going to have taxes on that. We’re going to pay taxes on those gains. And Bernard Baruch, who was the Warren Buffet of the Great Depression once said that you can never go broke making a profit. Okay, so if you’re paying taxes on the gains, it means you made a profit, and that’s actually a good thing. Now, taxes, we don’t like taxes. Taxes are something we’d rather avoid if we can, but it is preferable to losing principle, because if we just buy and hold we could see not only our investments go down where we’ve given back all of our gains, but if it’s bad enough, we could even give back principal on top of that. So given a choice a pay, you know, it’s kind of like, which is the worst of the two or which is the least bad of the two, paying taxes on gains is less bad than losing principal and all the gains that we had. So therefore, that’s why we don’t ignore our strategy now, again, because we’ve had such a good run and we do sell then if you have investments with us that are not in IRAs, then they will be subject to capital gains depending on how long you’ve held those investments. So comes with the territory. I don’t complain about paying taxes on gains that much. Okay, a little bit, but not much. So I hope that helps a little bit in anticipation. Now, again, we have not reached our sell signal, so until we do none of this applies, but we’re close enough that we think this is a good buying opportunity for us, and also it is a time for us to relearn the ins and outs, the pluses and minuses of our strategy. So again, all you SCWPerS Nation members out there, I hope you are SCWPering your little tails off. I hope all is going well, and for those of you who are not yet retired, we will do our darndest to get you there and hopefully get you out enjoying your second childhood without parental supervision. We want you to go play and have fun and enjoy. That’s what you need to do. Let us get the gray hair for you worrying about all this boring financial stuff. So thanks for watching. Make sure you like and subscribe to this video and also share it with your friends, and we’ll talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023 

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RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”) is an SEC registered investment adviser with a primary business location in Plano, Texas. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement by securities regulators and does not imply that Retirement Planners of America has attained a certain level of skill, training, or ability. The “Invest and Protect Strategy” (the “Strategy”) refers to a strategy that Retirement Planners of America fundamentally employs for its clients. Retirement Planners of America previously employed a similar strategy that it referred to as the “buy, hold, and sell” strategy or “buy hold, and protect” strategy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 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