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Good News For Our Investments

  • The inflation numbers came in and the market had a huge rally on that news.
  • When inflation bottomed out in June, we said it would trend back up and probably be around 3% by year end.
  • It came in at 2.9% so we were close.
  • Now where do we go from here?
  • They calculate inflation by comparing it to 12 months before as a benchmark to say if it is going up or down.
  • So, the next three months are going to be easy to beat.
  • Last year, inflation was a little bit high in January, February, and March.
  • We anticipate inflation is going to go down when they announce it in February, March and April, for the first three months of this year.
  • We think the market will receive that very well.
  • Last week, when the jobs numbers came in strong, the market went down dramatically because some investors were worried that inflation was coming back, and the Fed would have to raise interest rates.
  • Now, the inflation number was good, so therefore they’re not worried anymore, and the market went way up.
  • This whole thing seems to be extremely tied to what inflation is doing and what the Fed might do.
  • We think we’re going to see inflation coming down steadily over the next three months, so the market should be in very good shape, happily seeing inflation going down.
  • If the Fed lowers interest rates, the bond market should be happy, because in that scenario, bonds do well.
  • So, we think that the picture looks pretty good on the inflation and interest rate front for the next three months.
  • The wild card is Donald Trump, maybe the most unpredictable person who has ever been president, because we don’t know what he’s going to do.
  • He’s said that once he’s president, there’s going to be a flurry of executive orders, tariffs, and changes with immigration, which is very difficult to predict.
  • We anticipate seeing taxes stay where they are, and regulations come down, which is usually good for profits, the stock and bond market as well.
  • Overall, we’re optimistic about President Trump, but at the same time, we want to get past this volatility that’s going to happen here in the next month, before we’re willing to make our Fearless Forecast for this year.
  • The important thing is that we have our Invest and Protect Strategy, because bad news that causes the market to enter a recession is usually very difficult to predict.
  • 2008 was that way. Y2k was that way.
  • Our strategy is very good at detecting when those tremors are turning into downside momentum.
  • It gives us the peace of mind that if that does happen, our strategy will be able to mitigate significantly that downside and get us out.

 

 

Hello, SCWPerS Nation and clients. I hope this video finds you healthy, wealthy and wise. We have a lot to talk about. We got the inflation numbers that came in the market loved it. We had a huge rally on that news. And then, of course, we had the follow on on that. So this week has been a good week, and of course, we have the inauguration coming up when we have all kinds of stuff to talk about, so we want to dive into it as soon as we can. But before I do that, I want to share with you a quick story. Because you know, one of the my grandson had his birthday last year, and one of the presents that he got was this toy car. And let me tell you, I love a very, very well made product. I love to hold I love to touch it. I love to use it. It just, it’s just, when somebody makes something of a very high quality, it’s just a pleasure to interact with it. And so this toy is really cool. It’s, it’s about this big, and it can go literally 50 yards. So you give it a good push on a flat surface, it’ll go 50 yards without veering to the right or left. It’s straight. And so I had a lot of fun with my grandson. I’d say, you know, go stand way over there, and I’ll push it to you, and it goes all the way to him. And it was so cool. And so I actually you’re going to hate me for this. I’m warning you. I actually considered stealing it from him, but my daughter was like, No, daddy, step away from the vehicle. And so I did it, but everybody knew how enamored I was by this toy car. So when Christmas came along, guess what I got? I got three of them, and this is one of them. It’s not the one that my grandson was using, but it’s and these are rubber by the way, I get no commission for this, okay, but it’s made by this company, play forever. They’re not cheap. They’re $55 each, but they are so well made rubber tires, they go perfectly straight, smooth as a sled on snow. Really incredible. And so I went online to look at these. And you know what? The collector item of these things cost $7,800 these things are like collectable people collect these things. Who knew? But anyway, I got three of them. This is one, and I’ve been playing with it on my desk the whole time. What could I can I tell you? So anyway, like I said, no commission here. The inflation number came in, and as we said, that inflation back in June, we said, you know, when inflation bottomed out, we said they would trend back up and probably be around 3% by year end. We missed it by a 10th of a percent. I hate it when that happens, but it came in at 2.9% so we were close. Now where do we go from here? Well, as you guys know, the way that they calculate inflation is they compare it to the year before, to 12 months before. Why? Well, because if inflation is going up or down, you have to say compared to what right you have to have a benchmark you’re measuring it against. So in January, this month, they gave us the inflation number for December of last year. It’s always a month lag. So December of last year, 24 is compared to December of 2023 and this January, which we’ll get in February. We’ll compare January of 25 to January of 2024 so the next three months are going to be easy to beat. Because last year, January, February and March, inflation was a little bit high, and that being the case, easy beats this year. So we anticipate inflation is going to go down when they announce it in February, March and April, for the first three months of this year. So we think the market will receive that very well. It seems that, you know, we had the jobs numbers last week, and boy, they were strong. Market went down dramatically because, oh no, inflation is coming back, and the Fed is going to, you know, going to have to raise interest rates, and now the inflation number came in and, oh, it’s good, so therefore they’re not. They may lower interest rates, and the market went way up. So this whole thing seems to be extremely tied to what inflation is doing and what the Fed might do. And so because we think the next three months, we’re going to see inflation coming down pretty steadily, and we won’t know those next three months until the end of March. We think that by April, the market should be in very good shape, happily seeing inflation going down. The Fed talking about potentially lowering interest rates. The bond market should be happy, because in that scenario, bonds do well. So we think that the picture looks pretty good on the inflation and interest rate front for the next three months. So that’s all good. Now the wild card, of course, is Donald Trump, maybe the most unpredictable person who has ever been president, and so we don’t know what he’s going to do. He’s saying that once he’s president, there’s going to be a flurry of executive orders, tariffs, you know, all kinds of stuff with immigration, and so all of that is very difficult to predict. However, we will say that Donald Trump, most you know, it’s easy to say he is business friendly. And so that being the case, we should see the taxes stay where they are, we should see regulations come down, and that’s usually good for profits. And if that’s the case, the stock market and the bond market should like that as well. So overall, we’re optimistic about President Trump, but at the same time, we want to get past this volatility that’s going to happen here in the next month, before we’re willing to make our Fearless Forecast for this year, but overall, we are pretty optimistic. The important thing, of course, as you know, is that we have our Invest and Protect Strategy, because bad news that causes the market to drop significantly turn into a big, bad bear is usually very, very difficult to predict. It usually is a shock to the system that causes it. 2008 was that way. Y2k was that way. And those big, bad bears come very, very difficult to predict, and our strategy is very good at detecting that the tremors that that you know, those the downside momentum. And it gives me the peace of mind that if that does happen, our strategy will be able to mitigate significantly that downside and get us out. So it gives me peace of mind, because I use it with my investments. I’m right in there with you, and I hope it gives you the peace of mind of knowing that if all this optimism turns into pessimism and it goes really badly, that we’ve got something to protect us on the downside. So I hope that gives you peace of mind, like it does me. Now, you know a client said, Ken, are you still accepting clients? What are you kidding? Yes, we’re open for business, and we’re always looking so if you have any friends, any business associates, anybody that you think we could help or that would enjoy this video, please share. Send them our way. We’d love to, we’d love to help them, if we can. Okay, so for all you SCWPerS, I hope you’re SCWPering your tails off enjoying your retirement, and for those of you who are not yet aspiring SCWPerS, our job is to get you there, and we will endeavor to do that for you. We want you to go enjoy your second childhood without parental supervision. So again, I hope this video finds you healthy, wealthy and wise, and we’ll talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023 

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RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”) is an SEC registered investment adviser with a primary business location in Plano, Texas. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement by securities regulators and does not imply that Retirement Planners of America has attained a certain level of skill, training, or ability. The “Invest and Protect Strategy” (the “Strategy”) refers to a strategy that Retirement Planners of America fundamentally employs for its clients. Retirement Planners of America previously employed a similar strategy that it referred to as the “buy, hold, and sell” strategy or “buy hold, and protect” strategy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 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