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Fearless Forecast 2025 (NOT)

• Happy New Year!
• In our very first Market Alert video of the year, we typically do our Fearless Forecast.
• But this time, you may have noticed the title is Fearless Forecast (NOT!)
• It may be kind of cheating, but we are going to wait until the end of February to release our Fearless Forecast for the year.
• There is still so much uncertainty and such a broad array of potential outcomes.
• Firstly, President Trump is about as unpredictable as you can get, and what he does is going to affect the markets.
• He’s talking about tariffs, and economics tell us that tariffs are inflationary.
• Except, during his first term, he had all kinds of tariffs, and we had the lowest inflation in 50 years.
• So, hard to tell.
• Secondly, is the Federal Reserve.
• It feels like they just don’t know what they’re doing!
• They’ve tried to forecast, but as far as we can tell, they haven’t gotten a single forecast right.
• They’re saying they are now going to be data dependent, which means they’re going to wait for the data to make their decisions.
• But that’s what you do anyway, no matter what your forecast is, if the data comes in and it’s not what you forecast it, guess what you do? You react to the data.
• Because the data is very difficult to predict, we think the Fed is going to be difficult to predict as well.
• Finally, you add what we think potentially could be the biggest problem for the markets this year, and that is that the confidence in Donald Trump’s ability to fix everything.
• The market seems to be pricing their belief that he’s going to fix it all: the economy, inflation, everything is going to be fast and easy.
• Well, with a big economy like ours, nothing seems to get fixed quickly or easily.
• When expectation and reality meet and they’re not the same, that causes investors to take chips off the table.
• So, it’s very possible that that could be a problem this year.
• Lots of uncertainty and a whole array of potential outcomes.
• We are optimistic, but we always have our Invest and Protect Strategy ready to go.
• No matter what we think, just like with the Fed, you can forecast all you want, but when the data comes in and says it’s time to get out, we’ll get you out if we have to.
• We want to protect your money so it lasts as long as you do.
• We hope that our Invest and Protect Strategy gives you financial peace of mind.
• Please share this video with your friends, your family.
• We would love to visit with them and see if it’s a fit.
• Thanks for watching!


Hello SCWPerS Nation and clients, Happy New Year. 2025 is here, and this is our very first Market Alert video of the year. And this is the one where we do our Fearless Forecast every year. But this time, you may have noticed the title is Fearless Forecast, parentheses, NOT close parentheses. I’ll explain in a moment. But before we do that, I hope everybody is this video is reaching you healthy, wealthy and wise, and that all is well with you, and that you and yours have experienced a wonderful holiday season, and now we’re back in the saddle, back to work, back to getting stuff done for you as we are, and so I hope all is well. We just came back from a vacation. We took our family, our three daughters and our grandson and two son in laws, along with us, and we had a very good time. And, you know, my grandson is three years old, and he’s very willful, you know, he’s he’s got a strong personality, and he wants it his way or the highway. And so, you know, I can’t help it. I raised three kids, and so I apply my fatherly discipline on him. And my daughter’s like, Daddy, that’s not how we do it now. And I’m like, Are you kidding me? I raised you. I know more about raising kids than you do. Don’t tell me how to and she goes, Daddy. And I’m like, You’re right. You’re right. He’s your son. You’re the boss I defer. So there you go. Anyhow, let’s talk about why the (NOT). This is a very we’re actually going to not have our Fearless Forecast in this video, and we’re going to actually wait towards the end of February to have our Fearless Forecast for the year. So I know that’s kind of cheating, because you got a two month head start, but there’s so much uncertainty. There’s such a broad array of potential outcomes right now, and I want to explain what those are and why we we’re not going to make our Fearless Forecast yet. So let me start off with the president elect, President Trump. Try to predict President Trump. I dare you. Okay, he’s about as unpredictable as you can get, and so, and what he does is going to affect the markets. It’s going to affect all kinds of stuff. So trying to predict that is very, very difficult to do. Secondly, he is, you know, he’s talking about tariffs. And economics tells us that tariffs are inflationary. Why? Well, because if it costs more, you know, to bring products into this country because of the tariff, then consumers have to spend more, and therefore that’s inflationary. And so in theory, that should be the case, except for during his first term, he had all kinds of tariffs. And guess what? We had the lowest inflation in 50 years. So maybe not, maybe so hard to tell. The other thing we’ve got is the Federal Reserve. Now the Federal Reserve is a disappointment to us, because it feels like they just don’t know what they’re doing. They’ve tried to forecast, and as far as we can tell, they haven’t gotten a single forecast right. Remember when they said that inflation was going to be transitory? It’s only going to be around for a little bit, and then it’ll be gone. We don’t have to worry about it. Well, here we are, three years later, it’s still here. Or four years later, it’s still here, and in fact, going up so and then last year, they lowered interest rates because they said inflation was done. You know, mission accomplished? Well, no, we said that was going to be a mistake. We said that inflation was going to continue to go up. And it did. And so now it looks like, you know, when you lower interest rates, you cause the economy to heat up. And guess what that does? It causes inflation to go up. I guess they should watch this video. Maybe they should do that. But anyhow, so we’ve got that. The other thing also, and you know, the Federal Reserve now is going to be data dependent, as they’re saying, which means they’re going to wait for the data to make their decisions. But you know what? That’s what you do anyway, no matter what your forecast is, if the data comes in and it’s not what you forecast it, guess what you do? You become data dependent, right? You react to the data. So they probably should dispense with forecasting altogether anyway. So because the data is very difficult to predict, we think the Fed is going to be difficult to predict as well. And then you add on to that, what we think potentially could be the biggest problem for the markets this year, and that is that the confidence in, you know, after the elections, in Donald Trump’s ability to fix everything, okay, he’s going to fix it all, the economy, inflation, you know, everything’s going to be fixed. It’s going to be fast and easy. And the market is pricing all of that into perfection. Well, our you know, we’ve been around for a while, and nothing gets fixed quickly, easily, especially when you’ve got a big economy like ours. And so we hope President Trump will be very successful. We hope he achieves everything he’s saying he’s going to do, you know, we hope he’ll be the most successful president who’s ever lived, because if he’s successful, the economy will be successful, and so will our country. So we hope so, but at the same time, been around the block a few times, and we know that when expectation and reality meet and they’re not the same, that causes investors to take chips off the table. So it’s very possible that that could be a problem this year. So there’s a lot of uncertainty, a whole array of potential outcomes. We are optimistic, but you know what? We always have our Invest and Protect Strategy ready to go, because no matter what we think, just like with the Fed, you can forecast all you want, but when the data comes in and says, Oh no, time to get out, guess what you do, and that’s what we’re going to do for you if we have to. You know, we want to protect your money. Our goal is for you to enjoy your SCWPerness. You know it’s for your money to last as long as you do. And you know for you to have that financial peace of mind. And so having our strategy, we believe does that, does that for us, does that for me. I invest right along with you. I’m subject to all the stuff that our strategy does, and it lets me sleep at night, and it helps me to have confidence that we’re going to take care of you as well. So there you go. Have to wait till end of February before we get the Fearless Forecast. So thanks for watching this video. I hope it finds you healthy, wealthy and wise, and I hope you’ll share this video with your friends, your family. Everyone, please send them our way. We would love to visit with them and see if it’s a fit. We’d love to help as many people become SCWPerS as we possibly can. So again, thanks for watching, and we’ll talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023 

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RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”) is an SEC registered investment adviser with a primary business location in Plano, Texas. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement by securities regulators and does not imply that Retirement Planners of America has attained a certain level of skill, training, or ability. The “Invest and Protect Strategy” (the “Strategy”) refers to a strategy that Retirement Planners of America fundamentally employs for its clients. Retirement Planners of America previously employed a similar strategy that it referred to as the “buy, hold, and sell” strategy or “buy hold, and protect” strategy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 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